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2020年11月26日   星期四欢迎来到中国核能行业协会官网
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IAEA发布2020年版核电发展预测报告
时间: 2020年11月07日 来源:bb滚球王-官网APP下载 点击量: 328 分享:

  guojiyuanzinengjigou(iaea)2020nian9yuefabutiwei《zhizhi2050niannengyuan、dianlihehedianyuce》de2020nianbanniandubaogao。baogaogenjuyuanzinengjigoudongliduixinxixitongshoujidezuixintongjishuju,gaishulejiezhi2019niandiyuanzinengjigouchengyuanguodehedianzhuangkuang,binggenjuguojinengyuanshu《2019nianshijienengyuanzhanwang》hemeiguonengyuanxinxiguanliju《2019nianguojinengyuanzhanwang》liangfenguojiyanjiubaogao,yucelezhizhi2050nianquanqiuhediqunengyuanhedianlifazhanqingkuang。zheishiyuanzinengjigoufabudedi40banyucebaogao。

  与往期报告一样,新版报告对未来核电发展进行了低值和高值两种情景预测。预测依据包括: 其他国际组织所作的全球和地区能源、电力和核电发展预测;各国为经合组织核能机构提供的国家预测值;参与原子能机构年度核电装机容量预测专家组的估计值。低值和高值情景基于对核电发展驱动因素的不同假设,但均非极端假设。这些因素及其发展变化因国家而异。

bb滚球王  dizhiqingjingcaiyongdejiasheshi: muqiandeshichang、jishuheziyuanfazhanqushijiangjixubaochixiaqu,bingqiehedianxiangguanzhengcehefalvfaguijihububian。gaozhiqingjingzefangkaizheixiejiashe,gengjiaxiongxinbobo,qiejuyouhelixinghejishukexingxing,tongshikaolvleqihoubianhuayingduizhengce。

  dao2050nian,quanqiuzhongduannengyuanxiaofeiliangjiangzengzhangyue30%,fadianliangjiangzengzhangyibei。zaiquanqiufanweinei,huashiranliaorengranshidianlishengchandezhuyaonengyuan,2019nianyuezhan63%,qifenezi1980nianyilaibianhuabuda。dangjin,hedianduiquanqiudianlishengchandegongxianyuewei10%。

  yushangyibanbaogaodeyucezhixiangbi,xinbanbaogaodequanqiuyucezhijibenmeiyoubianhua,danbufendiqudeyucezhifashengbianhua。quanqiuhedianzhuangjirongliang2019nianwei392 gwe,dao2050nianjiangwei363 gwe(dizhiqingjing)zhi715 gwe(gaozhiqingjing)。

bb滚球王  yingxianghefadianrongliangbianhuadeyinsuyindiqueryi。dijiatianranqihekezaishengnengyuanbutiejiangjixuyingxiangbufendiqudehedianzengzhangqianjing。bufendiquchixucunzaidecaizhengbuquedingxinghedianlixuqiutingzhijiangjixujihediandengzibenmijixingxiangmudailaitiaozhan。genggaodeanquanyaoqiu、bushuxianjinjishufangmiandetiaozhanyijiqitayinsuzengzhanglehedianchangzaojiabinglazhanglebbgunqiuwangzhouqi。

bb滚球王  xianzaiwanquanpingguxinguanbingduyiqingduinengyuanxingyedeyingxianghaiweishiguozao,danmingxiankeyikandaoquanqiudianlixuqiuchuxianlejinyigeshijiyilaidezuidajiangfu。youyu“fengcheng”dengyixiliekangyicuoshideshishi,yixieguojiadedianlixuqiujiangdile10%~20%。henenghekezaishengnengyuanshoudaodeyingxiangxiangduijiaoxiao;huashiranliaodexuqiulianghechanliangjieliandafuxiajiang。xinguanweijiduidianlixingyedezhangqiyingxiangshangbuqingchu。danhedianyouzhuyubaozhangdianligongyinganquan,bingyizhishiweijiqijianzuijudanxingdedianlilaiyuanzhiyi。

  genjudizhiyucejieguo,hedianzaizongfadianliangzhongdefenedao2050niankenengjiangzhibuzu6%。zheibiaomingxuyaocaiqujinjixingdonglaiweichihedianzaidianlijiegouzhongdexianyoufene。genjugaozhiyucejieguo,hedianfenedao2050nianjiangchaoguo11%,danshixianzheiyimubiaoxuyaocaiquzhongdadexiediaoyizhixingdong。

  1 2019年全球核电发展概况

  jiezhi2019niandi,quanqiugongyou443taizaiyunhedianjizu,zongjingzhuangjirongliangwei392 gwe。lingyou54taihedianjizuzaijian,zongzhuangjirongliangwei57 gwe。

  2019nian,6taizongzhuangjirongliangwei5174 gwedehedianjizushixianshoucibingwangfadian,13taizongzhuangjirongliangwei10.2 gwedehedianjizuyongjiuguanbi。5taizongzhuangjirongliangwei6021 mwedejizukaigongbbgunqiuwang。

2019nian,hefadianliangtongbizengzhangyue4%,dadao2657 twh,zhanquanqiuzongfadianliangdeyue10.4%。

  2 全球核电发展预测

  2.1 hedianzhuangjirongliangyuce

  quanqiuzongdianlizhuangjirongliangjiangcong2019niande7410 gwezengzhi2030nian10,722 gwe、2040nian13,272 gwehe2050nian15,978 gwe。

  zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangjiangcong2019nian392 gwezengzhi2030nian475 gwe、2040nian622 gwehe2050nian715 gwe。

bb滚球王  zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangjiangzhubujiangzhi2030nian369 gwehe2040nian349 gwe,ranhouhuishengzhi2050nian363 gwe。

  wulunshigaozhiqingjinghaishidizhiqingjing,hedianzaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenezai2050nianqiandouchengxiajiangqushi: xiangduiyu2019nian,gaozhiqingjingjiangdibudao1gebaifendian,dizhiqingjingjiangdi3gebaifendian。

47497.png          2.2 核发电量预测

  quanqiuzhongduannengyuanxiaofeiliangjiangcong2019nian427.1 ejzengzhi2030nian491.4 ej、2040nian544.3 ejhe2050nian592.3 ej。yongdianliangcong2019nian80.4 ejzengzhi2030nian109 ej、2040nian135.8 ejhe2050nian161.4 ej,shangshusigenianduzaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeiliangzhongsuozhanfenefenbiewei18.8%、22.2%、24.9%he27.2%。

  quanqiuzongfadianliangjiangcong2019nian25,602 twhzengzhi2030nian34,922 twh、2040nian43,372 twhhe2050nian51,633 twh。

  zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangjiangcong2019nian2657 twhzengzhi2030nian3682 twh、2040nian4933 twhhe2050nian5762 twh。2050nian,hefadianliangzaizongfadianliangzhongdefenejiangda11.2%,xiangduiyu2019niantigaojin1gebaifendian。

  dizhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangjiangzengzhi2030nian2872 twh,ranhoujiangzhi2040nian2774 twh,jiezhezengzhi2050nian2929 twh。2050nian,hedianfenewei5.7%,xiangduiyu2019nianxiajiangjin5gebaifendian。

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  3 各地区核电发展

  3.1 beimeidiqu

  zi1980nianyilai,huashiranliaozaibeimeidiquzhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongdefeneyizhichaoguo70%。2019nian,huashiranliaofenewei73%,dianlifenewei20.8%。

  yu2019nianxiangbi,zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhang14%yishang,dao2050nianzengzhang23%;zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangbaochixiangduiwending,dao2050nianxiajiangjin3%,zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenedao2030nianxiajiang1gebaifendian,dao2050nianxiajiangjin2gebaifendian;zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianxiajiangjin19%,dao2050nianxiajiangyue2/3,zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenedao2030nianxiajiangchaoguo2gebaifendian,dao2050nianxiajiangjin6gebaifendian。

  yu2019nianxiangbi,zongfadianliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue8%,dao2050nianzengzhangyue20%;zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangdao2030nianxiajiangjin5%,dandao2050nianjinxiajiang3%,zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenedao2030nianxiajiangyue2gebaifendian,dao2050nianxiajiangjin4gebaifendian;zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangdao2030nianxiajiang20%,dao2050nianxiajiangjin2/3,zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenedao2030nianxiajiangjin5gebaifendian,dao2050nianxiajiangyue13gebaifendian。

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  3.2 拉美和加勒比地区

  huashiranliao1980nianzhi2000nianzaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongdefenelveyouzengzhang,danzi2000nianyilaizhujianxiajiang,2019nianyuewei60%,qizhongshiyoufeneweijin50%。2019nian,dianlizaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongzhanyou18.8%defene。

  yu2019nianxiangbi,zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue32%,dao2050nianzengzhangyibeiyishang;zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2050nianzengzhang3bei,zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenezengzhang1gebaifendian;zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangzaiweilai30nianfanyifan,zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenebaochiwending。

  yu2019nianxiangbi,zongfadianliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue50%,dao2050nianfanyifanyishang;zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhang40%yishang,dao2050nianzengzhang4bei,zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenefanfan;zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhangyue35%,dao2050nianzengzhangchaoguo130%,zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenebaochiwending。

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  3.3 北欧、西欧和南欧

bb滚球王  zi1980nianyilai,huashiranliaoyizhizaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongzhanzhudaodiwei。2019nian,huashiranliaofeneweiyue66%,qizhong42%laizishiyou;dianlifenewei21.9%。

  yu2019nianxiangbi,zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangjin20%,dao2050nianzengzhangjin1/3;zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2050nianjianshaoyue1/3;zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenexiajiangchaoguo5gebaifendian;zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2050nianjianshao60%,zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenexiajiang7gebaifendianyishang。

bb滚球王  yu2019nianxiangbi,zongfadianliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangjin6%,dao2050nianzengzhangjin8%;zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangzai2030nianqianbaochiwending,dandao2050nianxiajiangchaoguo1/5,zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenexiajiangjin7gebaifendian;zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangdao2030nianxiajiangyue17%,dao2050nianxiajiangchaoguo50%,zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenechaoguo13gebaifendian。

93405.png

  3.4 东欧

  zi1980nianyilai,huashiranliaozaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongyizhibaochizuidafene。2019nian,huashiranliaofeneyuewei64%,dianlifenewei14.6%。

  yu2019nianxiangbi,zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangchaoguo1/4,dao2050nianzengzhangjin3/4;zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2050nianzengzhang80%yishang,zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenebaochiwending;zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangbaochixiangduiwending,dao2050nianjinzengzhangyue10%,zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenexiajiangyue4gebaifendian。

bb滚球王  yu2019nianxiangbi,zongfadianliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhang1/3yishang,dao2050nianzengzhangchaoguo85%。zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhang40%yishang,dao2050nianzengzhangyibeiyishang,zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenetigaoyue3gebaifendian;zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhangjin20%,dao2050nianzengzhangjin30%,zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenexiajiangyue7gebaifendian。

24178.png

  3.5 非洲

  zaiguoqude40nianli,shengwunengyuanhefeiqiwuzaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongyizhizhanzuidafene,yuewei50%;huashiranliaofeneyizhixiangduiwending,yuewei40%。2019niandianlizaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongzhanyou10%defene。

  yu2019nianxiangbi,zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhang87%,dao2050nianzengzhang4bei;zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianzengzhangyibeiyishang,dao2050nianzengzhangjin7bei;zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjihubaochibubian,dao2050nianzengzhang2beiduo。

bb滚球王  yu2019nianxiangbi,zongfadianliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue3/4,dao2050nianzengzhangyue3.5bei。zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangdao2030nianfanyifanduo,dao2050nianzengzhang7beiyishang,zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenejiejinfanfan;zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangdao2030nianbaochibubian,dao2050nianzengzhangjin3bei,zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenedao2030nianlveyouxiajiang,cihouhuisheng,dao2050nianhuifudaoyu2019nianjihuxiangtongdeshuiping。

69797.png

  3.6 西亚

  huashiranliaozi1980nianyilaiyizhizaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongzhanzhudaodiwei,zhanbiwendingzai80%zuoyou。2019nian,shiyouzaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongdefenezuida,yuewei50%;dianlifeneyuewei19.7%。

bb滚球王  yu2019nianxiangbi,zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue16%,dao2050nianzengzhangyue65%;zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianzengzhang21beiyishang,dao2050nianzengzhangyue59bei,zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenezengzhang4gebaifendian;zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianzengzhang19bei,dao2050nianzengzhangyue34bei,zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenezengzhang2gebaifendian。

  yu2019nianxiangbi,zongfadianliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue35%,dao2050nianzengzhangyue86%;zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhang34beiyishang,dao2050nianzengzhang94bei,zaifadianliangzhongdefenetigaojin8gebaifendian;zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhang28beiyishang,dao2050nianzengzhang54beiyishang,zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenezengzhangyue4.5gebaifendian。

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  3.7 南亚

  huashiranliaozaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongdefenecong1980niandeyue40%wenbushangshengdao2019niande60%yishang。2019nian,dianlifeneyuewei14.8%。

bb滚球王  yu2019nianxiangbi,zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyibeiyishang,dao2050nianzengzhangchaoguo4bei;zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianzengzhangjin2bei,dao2050nianzengzhang7beiyishang,zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenezengjiayue1gebaifendian;zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianfanfan,dao2050nianzengzhang4bei,zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenebaochiwending。

  yu2019nianxiangbi,fadianliangdao2030nianjiangjihufanyifan,dao2050nianzengzhang3beiyishang;zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhangjin3bei,dao2050nianzengzhangjin10bei,zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenetigao4gebaifendian;zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhang1.5bei,dao2050nianzengzhang5beiduo,zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenetigao1.5gebaifendian。

43218.png

  3.8 中亚和东亚

  huashiranliaozi1980nianyilaiyizhizaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongzhanzhudaodiwei,zongfenebaochizai70%zuoyou。2019nian,dianlifenewei23.8%。

  yu2019nianxiangbi,zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue55%,dao2050nianzengzhangyibeiyishang;zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianzengzhangyue60%,dao2050nianzengzhangjin2bei,zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenetigaoyue1.3gebaifendian;zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianzengzhangyue10%,dao2050nianzengzhangyue40%,zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenexiajiangyue1.4gebaifendian。

  yu2019nianxiangbi,zongfadianliangdao2050nianjiangjiejinfanfan;zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhangyibeiyishang,dao2050nianzengzhang3beiduo,zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenezengzhangjin8gebaifendian;zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhangyue50%,dao2050nianfanfan,zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenelveyouzengzhang。

29798.png

  3.9 东南亚

  cong1980niandao1990nian,shengwunengyuanhefeiqiwuyizhizaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongzhanzuidafene。zi2000nianyilai,huashiranliaozaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongzhanzhudaodiwei,qizhongshiyoufenezuida,yuewei45%。2019nian,dianlifenewei15.6%。

  yu2019nianxiangbi,zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue60%,dao2050nianzengzhangjin2bei;zongfadianliangdao2030nianzengzhangyue55%,dao2050nianzengzhangjin2bei。zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,shoutaihedianjizujiangzai2030zhi2040niantouruyunxing,dao2050nianhedianzhuangjirongliangjiangzai2040nianjichushangfanfan,hedianzaizongfadianliangzhongdefenedao2050nianjiangdadao2.1%。zaidizhiqingjingzhong,hedianjizuyejiangzai2030zhi2040niantouruyunxing,hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2050nianjiangbi2040nianzengzhang2bei,hedianzaizongfadianliangzhongdefenedao2050nianjiangwei0.8%。

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  3.10 大洋洲

  zi1980nianyilai,huashiranliaoyizhizaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongzhanzhudaodiwei,jinguanqizongfenecong1980niande76%zhubuxiajiangdao2010niande69%。zai2010nianzhi2019nianqijian,huashiranliaofenezengzhangle3gebaifendian。shiyouzaisuoyouhuashiranliaozhongzhanbizuida,zi1980nianyilaiyizhibaochizai50%zuoyou。2019nian,dianlifeneyuewei22.2%。

  yu2019nianxiangbi,zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue35%,dao2050nianzengzhangjin80%;zongfadianliangdao2030nianzengzhangyue15%,dao2050nianzengzhangyue50%。zaigaozhiqingjingzhong,shoutaijizujiangzai2040zhi2050niantouyun,hedianzaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenedao2050nianjiangdadao1.3%,zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenewei3.5%。zaidizhiqingjingzhong,buhuifazhanhedian。

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  4 小结

  yuanzinengjigouzuixindenianduyucexianshi,hedianjiangjixuzaishijieditannengyuanjiegouzhongfahuiguanjianzuoyong,zaigaozhiqingjingxia,dao2050nianquanqiuhedianzhuangjirongliangjiangjinhufanbei。beimeihexioudengchuantonghediandaguosuozaidiquweilaidehedianfazhanjiangchuyutingzhizhuangtai,youdediqushenzhihuichuxiandaotui;weilaidehedianfazhanzhuyaojizhongzaiyazhouhedongoudiqu。


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