bb滚球王

　　guojiyuanzinengjigou（iaea）2020nian9yuefabutiwei《zhizhi2050niannengyuan、dianlihehedianyuce》de2020nianbanniandubaogao。baogaogenjuyuanzinengjigoudongliduixinxixitongshoujidezuixintongjishuju，gaishulejiezhi2019niandiyuanzinengjigouchengyuanguodehedianzhuangkuang，binggenjuguojinengyuanshu《2019nianshijienengyuanzhanwang》hemeiguonengyuanxinxiguanliju《2019nianguojinengyuanzhanwang》liangfenguojiyanjiubaogao，yucelezhizhi2050nianquanqiuhediqunengyuanhedianlifazhanqingkuang。zheishiyuanzinengjigoufabudedi40banyucebaogao。

　　与往期报告一样，新版报告对未来核电发展进行了低值和高值两种情景预测。预测依据包括: 其他国际组织所作的全球和地区能源、电力和核电发展预测；各国为经合组织核能机构提供的国家预测值；参与原子能机构年度核电装机容量预测专家组的估计值。低值和高值情景基于对核电发展驱动因素的不同假设，但均非极端假设。这些因素及其发展变化因国家而异。

bb滚球王　　dizhiqingjingcaiyongdejiasheshi: muqiandeshichang、jishuheziyuanfazhanqushijiangjixubaochixiaqu，bingqiehedianxiangguanzhengcehefalvfaguijihububian。gaozhiqingjingzefangkaizheixiejiashe，gengjiaxiongxinbobo，qiejuyouhelixinghejishukexingxing，tongshikaolvleqihoubianhuayingduizhengce。

　　dao2050nian，quanqiuzhongduannengyuanxiaofeiliangjiangzengzhangyue30%，fadianliangjiangzengzhangyibei。zaiquanqiufanweinei，huashiranliaorengranshidianlishengchandezhuyaonengyuan，2019nianyuezhan63%，qifenezi1980nianyilaibianhuabuda。dangjin，hedianduiquanqiudianlishengchandegongxianyuewei10%。

　　yushangyibanbaogaodeyucezhixiangbi，xinbanbaogaodequanqiuyucezhijibenmeiyoubianhua，danbufendiqudeyucezhifashengbianhua。quanqiuhedianzhuangjirongliang2019nianwei392 gwe，dao2050nianjiangwei363 gwe（dizhiqingjing）zhi715 gwe（gaozhiqingjing）。

bb滚球王　　yingxianghefadianrongliangbianhuadeyinsuyindiqueryi。dijiatianranqihekezaishengnengyuanbutiejiangjixuyingxiangbufendiqudehedianzengzhangqianjing。bufendiquchixucunzaidecaizhengbuquedingxinghedianlixuqiutingzhijiangjixujihediandengzibenmijixingxiangmudailaitiaozhan。genggaodeanquanyaoqiu、bushuxianjinjishufangmiandetiaozhanyijiqitayinsuzengzhanglehedianchangzaojiabinglazhanglebbgunqiuwangzhouqi。

bb滚球王　　xianzaiwanquanpingguxinguanbingduyiqingduinengyuanxingyedeyingxianghaiweishiguozao，danmingxiankeyikandaoquanqiudianlixuqiuchuxianlejinyigeshijiyilaidezuidajiangfu。youyu“fengcheng”dengyixiliekangyicuoshideshishi，yixieguojiadedianlixuqiujiangdile10%～20%。henenghekezaishengnengyuanshoudaodeyingxiangxiangduijiaoxiao；huashiranliaodexuqiulianghechanliangjieliandafuxiajiang。xinguanweijiduidianlixingyedezhangqiyingxiangshangbuqingchu。danhedianyouzhuyubaozhangdianligongyinganquan，bingyizhishiweijiqijianzuijudanxingdedianlilaiyuanzhiyi。

　　genjudizhiyucejieguo，hedianzaizongfadianliangzhongdefenedao2050niankenengjiangzhibuzu6%。zheibiaomingxuyaocaiqujinjixingdonglaiweichihedianzaidianlijiegouzhongdexianyoufene。genjugaozhiyucejieguo，hedianfenedao2050nianjiangchaoguo11%，danshixianzheiyimubiaoxuyaocaiquzhongdadexiediaoyizhixingdong。

　　1 2019年全球核电发展概况

　　jiezhi2019niandi，quanqiugongyou443taizaiyunhedianjizu，zongjingzhuangjirongliangwei392 gwe。lingyou54taihedianjizuzaijian，zongzhuangjirongliangwei57 gwe。

　　2019nian，6taizongzhuangjirongliangwei5174 gwedehedianjizushixianshoucibingwangfadian，13taizongzhuangjirongliangwei10.2 gwedehedianjizuyongjiuguanbi。5taizongzhuangjirongliangwei6021 mwedejizukaigongbbgunqiuwang。

2019nian，hefadianliangtongbizengzhangyue4％，dadao2657 twh，zhanquanqiuzongfadianliangdeyue10.4％。

　　2 全球核电发展预测

　　2.1 hedianzhuangjirongliangyuce

　　quanqiuzongdianlizhuangjirongliangjiangcong2019niande7410 gwezengzhi2030nian10,722 gwe、2040nian13,272 gwehe2050nian15,978 gwe。

　　zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangjiangcong2019nian392 gwezengzhi2030nian475 gwe、2040nian622 gwehe2050nian715 gwe。

bb滚球王　　zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangjiangzhubujiangzhi2030nian369 gwehe2040nian349 gwe，ranhouhuishengzhi2050nian363 gwe。

　　wulunshigaozhiqingjinghaishidizhiqingjing，hedianzaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenezai2050nianqiandouchengxiajiangqushi: xiangduiyu2019nian，gaozhiqingjingjiangdibudao1gebaifendian，dizhiqingjingjiangdi3gebaifendian。

　　　       2.2 核发电量预测

　　quanqiuzhongduannengyuanxiaofeiliangjiangcong2019nian427.1 ejzengzhi2030nian491.4 ej、2040nian544.3 ejhe2050nian592.3 ej。yongdianliangcong2019nian80.4 ejzengzhi2030nian109 ej、2040nian135.8 ejhe2050nian161.4 ej，shangshusigenianduzaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeiliangzhongsuozhanfenefenbiewei18.8%、22.2%、24.9%he27.2%。

　　quanqiuzongfadianliangjiangcong2019nian25,602 twhzengzhi2030nian34,922 twh、2040nian43,372 twhhe2050nian51,633 twh。

　　zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangjiangcong2019nian2657 twhzengzhi2030nian3682 twh、2040nian4933 twhhe2050nian5762 twh。2050nian，hefadianliangzaizongfadianliangzhongdefenejiangda11.2%，xiangduiyu2019niantigaojin1gebaifendian。

　　dizhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangjiangzengzhi2030nian2872 twh，ranhoujiangzhi2040nian2774 twh，jiezhezengzhi2050nian2929 twh。2050nian，hedianfenewei5.7%，xiangduiyu2019nianxiajiangjin5gebaifendian。

　　3 各地区核电发展

　　3.1 beimeidiqu

　　zi1980nianyilai，huashiranliaozaibeimeidiquzhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongdefeneyizhichaoguo70%。2019nian，huashiranliaofenewei73%，dianlifenewei20.8%。

　　yu2019nianxiangbi，zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhang14%yishang，dao2050nianzengzhang23%；zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangbaochixiangduiwending，dao2050nianxiajiangjin3%，zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenedao2030nianxiajiang1gebaifendian，dao2050nianxiajiangjin2gebaifendian；zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianxiajiangjin19%，dao2050nianxiajiangyue2/3，zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenedao2030nianxiajiangchaoguo2gebaifendian，dao2050nianxiajiangjin6gebaifendian。

　　yu2019nianxiangbi，zongfadianliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue8%，dao2050nianzengzhangyue20%；zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangdao2030nianxiajiangjin5%，dandao2050nianjinxiajiang3%，zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenedao2030nianxiajiangyue2gebaifendian，dao2050nianxiajiangjin4gebaifendian；zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangdao2030nianxiajiang20%，dao2050nianxiajiangjin2/3，zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenedao2030nianxiajiangjin5gebaifendian，dao2050nianxiajiangyue13gebaifendian。

　　3.2 拉美和加勒比地区

　　huashiranliao1980nianzhi2000nianzaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongdefenelveyouzengzhang，danzi2000nianyilaizhujianxiajiang，2019nianyuewei60%，qizhongshiyoufeneweijin50%。2019nian，dianlizaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongzhanyou18.8%defene。

　　yu2019nianxiangbi，zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue32%，dao2050nianzengzhangyibeiyishang；zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2050nianzengzhang3bei，zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenezengzhang1gebaifendian；zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangzaiweilai30nianfanyifan，zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenebaochiwending。

　　yu2019nianxiangbi，zongfadianliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue50%，dao2050nianfanyifanyishang；zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhang40%yishang，dao2050nianzengzhang4bei，zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenefanfan；zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhangyue35%，dao2050nianzengzhangchaoguo130%，zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenebaochiwending。

　　3.3 北欧、西欧和南欧

bb滚球王　　zi1980nianyilai，huashiranliaoyizhizaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongzhanzhudaodiwei。2019nian，huashiranliaofeneweiyue66%，qizhong42%laizishiyou；dianlifenewei21.9%。

　　yu2019nianxiangbi，zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangjin20%，dao2050nianzengzhangjin1/3；zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2050nianjianshaoyue1/3；zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenexiajiangchaoguo5gebaifendian；zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2050nianjianshao60%，zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenexiajiang7gebaifendianyishang。

bb滚球王　　yu2019nianxiangbi，zongfadianliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangjin6%，dao2050nianzengzhangjin8%；zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangzai2030nianqianbaochiwending，dandao2050nianxiajiangchaoguo1/5，zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenexiajiangjin7gebaifendian；zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangdao2030nianxiajiangyue17%，dao2050nianxiajiangchaoguo50%，zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenechaoguo13gebaifendian。

　　3.4 东欧

　　zi1980nianyilai，huashiranliaozaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongyizhibaochizuidafene。2019nian，huashiranliaofeneyuewei64%，dianlifenewei14.6%。

　　yu2019nianxiangbi，zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangchaoguo1/4，dao2050nianzengzhangjin3/4；zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2050nianzengzhang80%yishang，zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenebaochiwending；zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangbaochixiangduiwending，dao2050nianjinzengzhangyue10%，zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenexiajiangyue4gebaifendian。

bb滚球王　　yu2019nianxiangbi，zongfadianliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhang1/3yishang，dao2050nianzengzhangchaoguo85%。zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhang40%yishang，dao2050nianzengzhangyibeiyishang，zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenetigaoyue3gebaifendian；zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhangjin20%，dao2050nianzengzhangjin30%，zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenexiajiangyue7gebaifendian。

　　3.5 非洲

　　zaiguoqude40nianli，shengwunengyuanhefeiqiwuzaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongyizhizhanzuidafene，yuewei50%；huashiranliaofeneyizhixiangduiwending，yuewei40%。2019niandianlizaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongzhanyou10%defene。

　　yu2019nianxiangbi，zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhang87%，dao2050nianzengzhang4bei；zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianzengzhangyibeiyishang，dao2050nianzengzhangjin7bei；zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjihubaochibubian，dao2050nianzengzhang2beiduo。

bb滚球王　　yu2019nianxiangbi，zongfadianliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue3/4，dao2050nianzengzhangyue3.5bei。zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangdao2030nianfanyifanduo，dao2050nianzengzhang7beiyishang，zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenejiejinfanfan；zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangdao2030nianbaochibubian，dao2050nianzengzhangjin3bei，zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenedao2030nianlveyouxiajiang，cihouhuisheng，dao2050nianhuifudaoyu2019nianjihuxiangtongdeshuiping。

　　3.6 西亚

　　huashiranliaozi1980nianyilaiyizhizaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongzhanzhudaodiwei，zhanbiwendingzai80%zuoyou。2019nian，shiyouzaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongdefenezuida，yuewei50%；dianlifeneyuewei19.7%。

bb滚球王　　yu2019nianxiangbi，zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue16%，dao2050nianzengzhangyue65%；zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianzengzhang21beiyishang，dao2050nianzengzhangyue59bei，zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenezengzhang4gebaifendian；zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianzengzhang19bei，dao2050nianzengzhangyue34bei，zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenezengzhang2gebaifendian。

　　yu2019nianxiangbi，zongfadianliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue35%，dao2050nianzengzhangyue86%；zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhang34beiyishang，dao2050nianzengzhang94bei，zaifadianliangzhongdefenetigaojin8gebaifendian；zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhang28beiyishang，dao2050nianzengzhang54beiyishang，zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenezengzhangyue4.5gebaifendian。

　　3.7 南亚

　　huashiranliaozaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongdefenecong1980niandeyue40%wenbushangshengdao2019niande60%yishang。2019nian，dianlifeneyuewei14.8%。

bb滚球王　　yu2019nianxiangbi，zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyibeiyishang，dao2050nianzengzhangchaoguo4bei；zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianzengzhangjin2bei，dao2050nianzengzhang7beiyishang，zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenezengjiayue1gebaifendian；zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianfanfan，dao2050nianzengzhang4bei，zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenebaochiwending。

　　yu2019nianxiangbi，fadianliangdao2030nianjiangjihufanyifan，dao2050nianzengzhang3beiyishang；zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhangjin3bei，dao2050nianzengzhangjin10bei，zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenetigao4gebaifendian；zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhang1.5bei，dao2050nianzengzhang5beiduo，zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenetigao1.5gebaifendian。

　　3.8 中亚和东亚

　　huashiranliaozi1980nianyilaiyizhizaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongzhanzhudaodiwei，zongfenebaochizai70%zuoyou。2019nian，dianlifenewei23.8%。

　　yu2019nianxiangbi，zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue55%，dao2050nianzengzhangyibeiyishang；zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianzengzhangyue60%，dao2050nianzengzhangjin2bei，zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenetigaoyue1.3gebaifendian；zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2030nianzengzhangyue10%，dao2050nianzengzhangyue40%，zaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenexiajiangyue1.4gebaifendian。

　　yu2019nianxiangbi，zongfadianliangdao2050nianjiangjiejinfanfan；zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhangyibeiyishang，dao2050nianzengzhang3beiduo，zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenezengzhangjin8gebaifendian；zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hefadianliangdao2030nianzengzhangyue50%，dao2050nianfanfan，zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenelveyouzengzhang。

　　3.9 东南亚

　　cong1980niandao1990nian，shengwunengyuanhefeiqiwuyizhizaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongzhanzuidafene。zi2000nianyilai，huashiranliaozaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongzhanzhudaodiwei，qizhongshiyoufenezuida，yuewei45%。2019nian，dianlifenewei15.6%。

　　yu2019nianxiangbi，zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue60%，dao2050nianzengzhangjin2bei；zongfadianliangdao2030nianzengzhangyue55%，dao2050nianzengzhangjin2bei。zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，shoutaihedianjizujiangzai2030zhi2040niantouruyunxing，dao2050nianhedianzhuangjirongliangjiangzai2040nianjichushangfanfan，hedianzaizongfadianliangzhongdefenedao2050nianjiangdadao2.1%。zaidizhiqingjingzhong，hedianjizuyejiangzai2030zhi2040niantouruyunxing，hedianzhuangjirongliangdao2050nianjiangbi2040nianzengzhang2bei，hedianzaizongfadianliangzhongdefenedao2050nianjiangwei0.8%。

　　3.10 大洋洲

　　zi1980nianyilai，huashiranliaoyizhizaizhongduannengyuanxiaofeizhongzhanzhudaodiwei，jinguanqizongfenecong1980niande76%zhubuxiajiangdao2010niande69%。zai2010nianzhi2019nianqijian，huashiranliaofenezengzhangle3gebaifendian。shiyouzaisuoyouhuashiranliaozhongzhanbizuida，zi1980nianyilaiyizhibaochizai50%zuoyou。2019nian，dianlifeneyuewei22.2%。

　　yu2019nianxiangbi，zongdianlizhuangjirongliangdao2030nianjiangzengzhangyue35%，dao2050nianzengzhangjin80%；zongfadianliangdao2030nianzengzhangyue15%，dao2050nianzengzhangyue50%。zaigaozhiqingjingzhong，shoutaijizujiangzai2040zhi2050niantouyun，hedianzaizongdianlizhuangjirongliangzhongdefenedao2050nianjiangdadao1.3%，zaizongfadianliangzhongdefenewei3.5%。zaidizhiqingjingzhong，buhuifazhanhedian。

　　4 小结

　　yuanzinengjigouzuixindenianduyucexianshi，hedianjiangjixuzaishijieditannengyuanjiegouzhongfahuiguanjianzuoyong，zaigaozhiqingjingxia，dao2050nianquanqiuhedianzhuangjirongliangjiangjinhufanbei。beimeihexioudengchuantonghediandaguosuozaidiquweilaidehedianfazhanjiangchuyutingzhizhuangtai，youdediqushenzhihuichuxiandaotui；weilaidehedianfazhanzhuyaojizhongzaiyazhouhedongoudiqu。