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2020年11月27日   星期五欢迎来到中国核能行业协会官网
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荣健: bb滚球王国核电安全高效发展路径与措施
时间: 2020年08月20日 来源:bb滚球王-官网APP下载 作者: 荣健 点击量: 1554 分享:

作者简介

荣健,博士,毕业于兰州大学,先后在中国原子能科学研究院、国防科工委、国家能源局工作,现任国家能源局中国核电发展中心副主任,长期从事核电行业管理、政策规划研究等工作。

文章摘要

清洁低碳转型发展已成全球能源发展的共识。核电作为安全可靠、清洁高效的优质能源,在bb滚球王国发展还不充分,在调整能源结构、保障供应安全、降低二氧化碳排放等方面,未来还应发挥更加重要的作用。bb滚球王国核电技术研发、工程设计、装备制造、建筑安装、运营管理、燃料保障等能力足以支撑核电规模发展,但也面临着一些发展不充分、不平衡、不协调的问题与挑战。推进核电安全高效、高质量发展,需要做好技术、安全与经济等的统一,实现各个层面的协调融合。


bb滚球王hedianshiqingjie、anquan、gaoxiaodenengyuan,tigonglequanqiu10%yishangdedianligongying。yushijiezhuyaofadaguojiaxiangbi,bbgunqiuwangguohedianfazhanhaihenbuchongfen,hedianzainengyuangongyingzhongdezhanbipiandi,zaidiaozhengnengyuanjiegou、baozhanggongyinganquan、jiangdieryanghuatanpaifangdengfangmian,hedianhaiyinggaifahuigengjiazhongyaodezuoyong。anquanshihediandeshengmingxian,ruhezuohaojishu、anquanyujingjidengdetongyi,shixianhediananquangaoxiao、gaozhiliangfazhan,xuyaozuohaowugefangmianderonghe。

yi、quanqiuhedianfazhanjiankuang

目前全球在运核电机组共450台,分布在30多个国家和地区,总装机容量达到了3.97亿kW,约占全球电力总装机的6.5%。2018年核电发电量约2.72万亿kWh,已经恢复到了日本福岛核事故前的水平,占总发电量的比重约为10.2%,在能源消费总量中的占比约为5%。在建核电机组55台,装机容量约5600万千瓦,多数分布在亚太国家和地区。

核电发展与国家工业化、现代化进程密切相关。上世纪60至80年代,是核电发展的高峰期,这个时期核电的发展主要集中在美、欧、日等西方发达国家,这些国家用了十五到二十年时间基本完成了核电在国内的布局,将核电占国内总发电量的比重提高到了20%以上。

此后,受全球能源需求增长放缓以及1979年美国三哩岛核电站事故、1986年前苏联切尔诺贝利核电站事故、1999年日本东海村核燃料循环设施超临界事故等重大核事故影响,全球核电bb滚球王速度放缓。本世纪初,在中国、俄罗斯、印度等新兴经济体带动下,全球核电发展出现复苏,一批新的核电项目相继开工。但2011年3月,日本福岛第一核电站受地震和海啸影响,发生严重核事故,再次减缓了全球核电复苏步伐。

长远来看,全球能源的需求仍将一直保持增长。国际机构普遍预测,到2040年全球能源需求将增长25%~35%,需求增量将主要集中在新兴经济体中的人口和资源大国,即便经合组织国家能源需求无增长或持续下降,全球能源需求总量依旧坚挺上扬。

从能源消费的种类上看,以石油、煤炭、天然气为主的化石能源虽然仍将是世界能源供应的主要来源,但清洁低碳转型发展已成共识,核电仍将全球能源发展的重要选择。据国际原子能机构(IAEA)等国际组织统计,日本福岛核事故发生后,全球有核或有意发展核电的46个国家中,有21个制定了更加积极的核电发展规划,9个国家保持了福岛核事故前制定的规划目标。统计表明,除中国之外,2000年至2010年间全球平均每年开工核电机组3.36台,福岛核事故后的2011年至2017年则平均每年开工3.29台核电机组,从这个数字在福岛核事故前后相差甚微,可见核电的受重视程度并未减弱。

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                                                   图1 中国和其他国家历年开工核电机组数

bb滚球王keguanshangkan,hedianzaiquanqiudefazhanqianjingrengbeichixukanhao,feihe、qihedengguandianbingfeiquanqiuzongtinengyuanfazhandezhuliu。guojiyuanzinengjigouzai2017nianduiweilaiquanqiuhedianfazhanqianjingjinxinglezhanwang,tichulegao、diliangzhongfazhanqingjing。gaofanganxia,2030nianquanqiuhedianzhuangjijiangda5.54yikw,2040nianda7.17yiqianwa,2050nianda8.74yikw。difanganxia,xinjianjizutouchansudujiangzanshimanyuzaiyunjizutuiyisudu,2030nianquanqiuhedianzhuangjiwei3.45yikw,2040nianjixujiangdao3.32yiqianwa,cihouzhunianshangsheng,2050nianchaoguomuqianguimo,dadaoyue4yikw。

yuzhixiangduiying,guojinengyuanshuzai2017nianfabudeshijienengyuanzhanwangzhong,yucelebutongfazhanqingjingxiadehedianguimo,tichu2030nianquanqiuhedianzhuangjiyue4.68~5.86yikw,2040nianyue5.16yi~7.20yikw,hedianzaiquanqiunengyuanfadianliangzhongdezhanbizai9%~15%zhijian。

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chulexinzengzhuangji,dao2040nianquanqiujiangyou136tai、yue1yikwhedianjizuyunxingshijiandadao60nian,quanqiujiangyoujin320tai、yue2.8yikwhedianjizuyunxingshijiandadao50nian。zheiyiweizhejieshijiangyoudapihedianjizumianlintuiyi,xuyaobbgunqiuwangyipixinjizujinxingtidai,shebeigengxinhuandaiyeshiweilaifazhandeyigezhongyaofangmian,zheileiqingkuangzhuyaojizhongzaihedianjiaozaofazhandeouzhouhebeimeidiqu。

ciwai,suizhehenengjishudetupohejingjixingdetisheng,chudaxinghedianjizuwai,yujihenengjiangzaigongyegongre、minyonggongnuan、haishuidanhua、gongyezhiqingdenglingyuxingchengxindeyingyongkongjian,weilaihenengdeliyongzaixingzhi、zhongleihechengdufangmiandoujiangdedaofengfuhetisheng。


二、bb滚球王国核电发展现状与展望
bb滚球王       根据《能源生产和消费革命战略(2016—2030)》,bb滚球王国能源消费将持续增长,新增能源消费主要由清洁能源提供。2030年bb滚球王国能源消费总量需控制在60亿吨标准煤以内,其中煤炭比重将降低到50%以下,非化石能源消费占比达到20%左右。为满足减排要求,bb滚球王国二氧化碳排放量应该在2030年左右达到峰值,并要尽可能早的达到峰值,到2050年,非化石能源消费占比需要超过一半,表明核电这种不排放温室气体的非化石能源还有较大发展空间。

zongtishangkan,muqianbbgunqiuwangguohenengxiaofeibizhongpiandi,guimofazhanhediandeshehuixiaoyi、jingjixiaoyi、shengtaixiaoyideng,yijizaibaozhangbbgunqiuwangguonengyuananquanhetishengguojiazonghejingzhenglizhongdezhanlvezuoyongshangweichongfentixian。muqian,bbgunqiuwangguodaludiquzaiyunhedianjizu45tai,zhuangjirongliang4590wanqianwa,zaijian11tai,zhuangjirongliang1218wanqianwa,zheiyangdeshujuwanquankeyi、yexuyaodedaojinyibutisheng。

bb滚球王genjuzhongdianliantongjikuaibao,2018nianquanguofadianliangdadao6.99wanyiqianwashi,qizhonghedianfadianliang2944yiqianwashi,yuezhanquanguoleijifadianliangde4.2%。suiranhedianfadianliangzongtizhanbihendi,danhedianzhanbidiyuchayida,bufenyanhaifadashengfenliyonglvjiaogao,jibendadaofadaguojiashuiping,liru,fujian、hainan、zhejiang、guangdong、liaoningdengshengfen,2018nianhedianzaibenshengdedianlizhanbiyijiejinhuochaoguo20%,bendidianlixiaonawentichubuxianxian,zheitixianchubbgunqiuwangguohedianfazhandebujunheng。

bbgunqiuwangguoyijingshiquanqiudiyidianlizhuangjihedianlishengchandaguo,yongdianliangchaoguoquanqiuzongyongdianliangde1/4。zongliangbuxiao,danzaiquanqiudianlizhongzongxiangbijiao,bbgunqiuwangguodianlifazhanhaihenbuchongfen。muqianbbgunqiuwangguorenjunyongdianliangyue5000kwh,budaofadaguojiadeyiban,fazhankongjianhenda。zongheduofangyanjiuchengguo,yuji2035nianbbgunqiuwangguoquanshehuiyongdianliangjiangdadao11~12wanyikwh,bi2018nianxuyaoyoujiaodadetisheng,zheiyubbgunqiuwangguojingjigaodufanrongfazhandexianshishixiangduiyingde,chengzhengbiguanxi。

bb滚球王congweilaidianligongjikan,shouhuanjingkongjian、ziyuantiaojian、dianlixitongdengduozhongyinsuzhiyue,yujidao2035nian,meidianzhuangjikedao11~12yikw,changguishuidiankedadao4.5yikwzuoyou,fengdian、taiyangnengfadianzhuangjigekeda5~6yikw。eryaoshixianfeihuashinengyuandexiaofeimubiao,jiuxuyaoguimofazhanhedian,shidehedianfadianzhanbidadao10%,zhanyicinengyuanxiaofeide5%,zheigebizhongzaiweilai15nianyinggaiyaoquanlishixian,yeshikeyizuodaode。


三、bb滚球王国核电安全高效发展路径与措施

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qici,hedianfazhanyaoshixianzishenanquanyujingjidexiediaoronghe。yingjianchiyixiayuanze,yishijianchihediananquanweiben,jianjuedujue“paomaodilou”;ershizhudongcanyudianlishichang,cujinhedian“youjiamanfa”;sanshijiaqiangneibuchengbenguankong,zuohaohedian“jiangbenzengxiao”,sishishenhuaguanligaigechuangxin,dazaozhili“xiandaiyinqing”,wushizhuzhongchanyejunhengfazhan,bimian“mutongxiaoying”。

jinnianlai,quanguodianlishichanghuajiaoyiguimohebizhongzhunianpansheng。2016nianquanguoshichanghuajiaoyidianliangweiquanbudianliangde19%,2017nianshangshengdao26%,2018niandadao30%zuoyou。hedianyaoyuelaiyueshendudicanyudianlishichang,jianchishangshu5geyuanze,dahao“shichangpai”,shixiananquanyujingjidexiediaoronghe。

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bb滚球王zaici,hediankejichuangxinyaozuohaolizudangqianyumouhuazhangyuanxiangronghe。jishuyuchuangxinshifazhandezhutuiqi,yidingyaozhuyikandezhangyuanyixie。zheifangmianbbgunqiuwanghaiyouyixiebuzu,zhuyaotixianzaiyixia5gefangmian:

qiyi,zizhupinpaixianjinhedianjishurengxujinyibuyouhuasheji,yitigaojingjijingzhengli;qier,yixie“kabozi”deguanjianjishu、hexinbujianhejichucailiaorengxujiadagongguan,jinyibutigaozizhuzhizaonengliheshuiping;qisan,guoneixiaoxingduiyanfashangweizouchu“daduixiaoxinghua”dejuxian,yingyongqianjingbuminglang。erjubeiguyouanquan、gaoduzhineng、jidujianhua、gongchangyuzhi、mokuaipeizhidengtezhengdexiaoxinghenengzhuangzhihuokezuoweifenbushinengyuan,shixianguimohuayingyong,muqianshangxuxuduogongguan;qisi,zaidisidaihenengxitongyanfafangmian,guoneiqiyezai6zhongduixingjunyoutouru,dangezhongduixingdejishujichuyufazhanqianlibuyi,yinggaijingxinmouhua、tizaobushu,jizhongziyuan、tuchuzhongdian,fencengcikaizhanyanfashifangongzuo,xingchengticituijindejishubuju;qiwu,mianxiangzhangyuan,yaojiaqiangduijichuxing、yuanchuangxingkejichuangxindetouru,xingchengchixu、wendingdetourujizhi。

bb滚球王disi,hedianfazhanyaoxietongtuijinyudifangjingjishehuifazhanderonghe。hedianxiangmubushikongzhonglouge,yidingyaozhuyiyudifangdejingjifazhanxiangronghe,zuodao“jiediqi”。qiyi,zaixiangmuqianqizhunbeijieduanjiuyaochongfenkaolvquyufazhanzhanlve、chanyeshengji、jichusheshi、daidongjiuyedengzonghexingxuqiu,zuohaoguihua,zhuzhongshixiao,wuqiuluoshi;qier,jijitansuochuangxinchangzhibaohumoshi,panhuodifangtudiziyuan,tigaodifangzhudongbaohuchangzhidejijixing;qisan,hedianchangbbgunqiuwangjieduanyaojijicanyubingyindaohedianzhanzhoubianfazhan,shixianhedianzhanbbgunqiuwangyuzhoubianshehuifazhandexianghucujin、gongchugongrongyouhuahedianchangshengchanyunxingguanli,jinkenengjiangdiduizhoubianhuanjingdeyingxiang,tigaoziyuanxunhuanliyongxiaolv;qisi,zhudongkaifanggongxianghebbgunqiuwangdifangtesechanye,jiaqiangxinxigongkaihegongzhonggoutong,yingzaolianghaodeshehuihuanjinghequnzhongjichu。

diwu,hedianfazhanyaoyigengkaifangdeshiyeyuguojishichangxiangronghe。“jiediqi”detongshiyaojubeiguojiyishi,yaojubeiquanqiugejuhexinxiong,yaojiangguojihuatigaodaozhanlvegaodu,yubbgunqiuwangguo“yidaiyilu”changyixiangronghe。“yidaiyilu”yanxianguojiahedianbbgunqiuwangkezhanquanqiuxinjianhedianshichangde80%,jizhonglequanqiujinyibandetianranyouchuliang,quanchanyelianzouchuquchanzhikeda3wanyiyuan,erqiehejishuyingyongdeshichangqianlijuda。

yaozuodaojianchizizhuyuxiezuobingzhong,goujianquanqiuhenengfazhandemingyungongtongti,zhanshifuzerendaguoxingxiang,lvxingdaguochengnuo,zaiquanqiugaishanshengtaihuanjingheyingduiqihoubianhuafahuiyingyouzuoyong;tongshiyaozhuyikexuerenshihebawohedianzhuangbeizizhuhua,chongfenfahuiguojishichangdejingzhengcujinhejishujiejianzuoyong;haiyaozuodao“yinjinlai”he“zouchuqu”jiehe,youxiaoliyonghaiwaiziyuan,duozhongfangshiyinjinheliyongguojigaoduanhedianrencai;gengyaozhuyizaiyouxujingzhengzhongfazhan,yicixingchengqiangdaheli,zhutuihedianshiyeanquangaoxiao、gaozhiliangfazhan。


(quanwenkanzaijieshu)





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