bb滚球王

2020年09月03日   星期四欢迎来到中国核能行业协会官网
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荣健: bb滚球王国核电安全高效发展路径与措施
时间: 2020年08月20日 来源:bb滚球王-官网APP下载 作者: 荣健 点击量: 245 分享:

作者简介

荣健,博士,毕业于兰州大学,先后在中国原子能科学研究院、国防科工委、国家能源局工作,现任国家能源局中国核电发展中心副主任,长期从事核电行业管理、政策规划研究等工作。

文章摘要

清洁低碳转型发展已成全球能源发展的共识。核电作为安全可靠、清洁高效的优质能源,在bb滚球王国发展还不充分,在调整能源结构、保障供应安全、降低二氧化碳排放等方面,未来还应发挥更加重要的作用。bb滚球王国核电技术研发、工程设计、装备制造、建筑安装、运营管理、燃料保障等能力足以支撑核电规模发展,但也面临着一些发展不充分、不平衡、不协调的问题与挑战。推进核电安全高效、高质量发展,需要做好技术、安全与经济等的统一,实现各个层面的协调融合。


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目前全球在运核电机组共450台,分布在30多个国家和地区,总装机容量达到了3.97亿kW,约占全球电力总装机的6.5%。2018年核电发电量约2.72万亿kWh,已经恢复到了日本福岛核事故前的水平,占总发电量的比重约为10.2%,在能源消费总量中的占比约为5%。在建核电机组55台,装机容量约5600万千瓦,多数分布在亚太国家和地区。

核电发展与国家工业化、现代化进程密切相关。上世纪60至80年代,是核电发展的高峰期,这个时期核电的发展主要集中在美、欧、日等西方发达国家,这些国家用了十五到二十年时间基本完成了核电在国内的布局,将核电占国内总发电量的比重提高到了20%以上。

此后,受全球能源需求增长放缓以及1979年美国三哩岛核电站事故、1986年前苏联切尔诺贝利核电站事故、1999年日本东海村核燃料循环设施超临界事故等重大核事故影响,全球核电bb滚球王速度放缓。本世纪初,在中国、俄罗斯、印度等新兴经济体带动下,全球核电发展出现复苏,一批新的核电项目相继开工。但2011年3月,日本福岛第一核电站受地震和海啸影响,发生严重核事故,再次减缓了全球核电复苏步伐。

长远来看,全球能源的需求仍将一直保持增长。国际机构普遍预测,到2040年全球能源需求将增长25%~35%,需求增量将主要集中在新兴经济体中的人口和资源大国,即便经合组织国家能源需求无增长或持续下降,全球能源需求总量依旧坚挺上扬。

从能源消费的种类上看,以石油、煤炭、天然气为主的化石能源虽然仍将是世界能源供应的主要来源,但清洁低碳转型发展已成共识,核电仍将全球能源发展的重要选择。据国际原子能机构(IAEA)等国际组织统计,日本福岛核事故发生后,全球有核或有意发展核电的46个国家中,有21个制定了更加积极的核电发展规划,9个国家保持了福岛核事故前制定的规划目标。统计表明,除中国之外,2000年至2010年间全球平均每年开工核电机组3.36台,福岛核事故后的2011年至2017年则平均每年开工3.29台核电机组,从这个数字在福岛核事故前后相差甚微,可见核电的受重视程度并未减弱。

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                                                   图1 中国和其他国家历年开工核电机组数

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二、bb滚球王国核电发展现状与展望
bb滚球王       根据《能源生产和消费革命战略(2016—2030)》,bb滚球王国能源消费将持续增长,新增能源消费主要由清洁能源提供。2030年bb滚球王国能源消费总量需控制在60亿吨标准煤以内,其中煤炭比重将降低到50%以下,非化石能源消费占比达到20%左右。为满足减排要求,bb滚球王国二氧化碳排放量应该在2030年左右达到峰值,并要尽可能早的达到峰值,到2050年,非化石能源消费占比需要超过一半,表明核电这种不排放温室气体的非化石能源还有较大发展空间。

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三、bb滚球王国核电安全高效发展路径与措施

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