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2020年11月26日   星期四欢迎来到中国核能行业协会官网
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核电厂长期运行(LTO)——核电经济性的最优选择
时间: 2020年08月18日 来源:bb滚球王-官网APP下载 作者: 李颖涵 戴 定 编译 点击量: 1834 分享:

bb滚球王shijiehexiehui(wna)2020nian6yuefabu《henengzichandechijiujiazhi》baogao。baogaojieshaolehedianchangzhangqiyunxing(lto)deyoushi,zhichultoshinengyuanjingjixingzuiyoudexuanze,fenxidangqianhedianjizutiqianguantingyuanyin,bingtichuquebaohedianchangltoxuyaokaizhandegongzuo。

1 在运核电机组具备长期运行的能力

bb滚球王ltodemudeshijianghedianchangyunxingshouqiyanzhangzhichaoguoyuanxukezhengshouqihuoshejiyunxingshouqi,shiqinenggouzaigengzhangshijianneiyikekao、dichengbenqieditanpaifangdefangshishengchandianli,congershixianjiazhizuidahua。daduoshuzaiyunhedianjizuzuichudeshejiyunxingshouqiwei30zhi40nian,danzheibingfeiyouyujishuxianzhi。rujin,zaimanzufagui、anquanxinghejingjixingyaoqiuhou,hedianchangyanshouyichengweiyizhongchangjianzuofa。

bb滚球王2019nian,yipihedianjizuyunxingqiman50nian,zheishiyigezhongyaodelichengbei。yindutalapuer(tarapur)1haojizulvxianshixian,qicishitalapuer2haojizu、ruishibeizinao(beznau)1haojizu、meiguojiuyinglifeng(nine mile point)1haojizuhejingna(ginna)jizu。zheixiejizujiangzaibizuichuyuqigengzhangdeshijianli,jixushengchanqingjiekekaodedianli。

hedianchangltoyiyouchenggongshifandexianli。meiguoyongyouquanqiuyilingzuizhangdehedianjizu,qizhongdaduoshujizudeyunxingxukezhengyizai40nianqixiandejichushangyanzhang20nian。jinguanniandaijiuyuan,zheixiedianchangdeyejirengranshifenzhuoyue,fuheyinzichaoguo90%。xuduoyunyingshangshenzhixiwangzaiciyanshouzhi80nian。2019nian12yue,foluolidazhoutuerqijiao(turkey point)chengweiquanqiudiyizuohuozhunyanshouzhi80niandehedianchang。

tandaohedianchanglaohuawenti,geguomianlinzhuduotiaozhan,bingfeisuoyouhedianjishudounengshixianyanshou。liru,youyushimozujianshoumingyouxianqiewufatihuan,yingguoxianjinqilengdui(agr)jiangzaiweilai10nianneiquanbuguanting,pingjunyunxingshouqiwei40zhi50nian。eluosidagonglvfeitengguanshidui(rbmk)yemianlinleisiwenti,riyilaohuadeshimozhuangzhijiangdilejizuyunxingxingneng,bingjiangqishoumingxianzhizai45nianzuoyou。danzheileijishuzhizhanshijiehedianchangdexiaobufen,daduohedianjizushujuncaiyongyashuidui(pwr)、feishuidui(bwr)hejiayazhongshuidui(phwr)jishu,meiyoushoumingfangmiandeteshuxianzhi。ciwai,guanyulaohuawentidejishuyanjiuyezaibuduanfazhan,shenzhiyouwangzhaodaoshimoduiyanshoudejiejuefangan,bingkenengjuyougenggaodefuheyinzi。

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图1 截至2020年1月,目前反应堆的在运时间(资料来源:bb滚球王-官网APP下载

1.1 部分核电机组提前关停原因

daduoshuhedianjizuguantingbingbushiyouyushebeilaohuawenti,ershishoushichang、jingjitiaojianhuozhengfufalingyingxiangdejieguo。zaixuduohedianchang,heshiguantingjizudejuedingquanyouzhengfuzhangwo。jishiyunyingshangyouxuanzequan,zhengfuyeketongguoyinruxindeshuishouzhengcejishichanggaige,huozhetuidongjianguanjigouzhidingxindetouzibiaozhun,poshihedianchangtiqianguanting。ruozhengfunengjiyuzhichi,meiguoduotaijizuyingnengbimiantiqianguanting。shishishang,guanyushifoubbgunqiuwangyijiruheweichibingjianguanhedianchang,conggenbenshangjiangrengshiyigezhengzhiwenti。

shuiliyaliejishudechengshu,shidijiayeyanqidapichuxian,daozhidianlishichangjiagexiajiang,jianjiecushimeiguoduotaihedianjizuyinjingjiyinsutiqianguanting,danqijuedingxingzuoyongderengranshishichangjiegou。youyuzhengfuduihedianchangzhengshui,ruidianhexibanyazuijinyeyoubufenhedianchangguanting。

bb滚球王ciwai,haiyouzhengzhiyinsudaozhideguanting。lirudeguo、hanguoyinqiguoneideqihezhengceguantinglebufenjizu。siluofakedengzhong、dongouguojiayinoumengrumengyaoqiuerguantinglaojiujizu。

zhengce、fagui、weihuchengbenheshichangdengyinsudegongtongzuoyongshidaozhihedianjizuguantingdezhuyaoyuanyin。2011nian3yuefudaoheshiguzhishejisitaijizu,danzhihouribengedidedianligongsiyizhiwufacongdifangzhengfuhuodezhongqihedianjizudexuke。xinanquanbiaozhunchutaihou,duojiagongsiyinchengbenyuanyinfangqiduijiujizushengjigaizao,daozhishiyutaijizuxuanzeguanting。

1.2 LTO的价值

bb滚球王zuoweiditanzhanlvedeyibufen,hedianchangltobujinnenggoujiangdixiaofeizhedenengyuanzhichu,haiyouzhuyubaohuhuanjing。youyudianchangcengmiandejingji、zhengzhiyuanyin,hedianjizutiqianguantingdequshiyiyinfashehuigejieguanzhu。yuelaiyueduodegongmintuantiheguojizuzhihuyujianghenengshiweigaishanqihoubianhuadeyouxianxuanze,bingxianggeguozhengfushiya,yaoqiuzuzhihedianchangguozaoguanbi。

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图2 2000年至2020年1月,因不同原因关停的反应堆数量

zaidaduoshunengyuanshichang,ruguoyipingzhunhuachengben(lcoe)jisuan,ltoshizuijingjidexuanze,zheizhongzhuangtaiyujijiangbaochijishinian。zaidaduoshufazhanzhongguojia,xinjianhenengrengranshizuibianyideditanjishuzhiyi。zaimeiguodengfadaguojia,jianzaoyizuotongleixinghedianchangdechengbenshiyanzhangxianyouhedianchangshoumingdeliangbeizhiduo(tu3)。ciwai,hedianchanglcoebaohanlebaokuofeiwuguanlizaineidesuoyouchengben。xiangbizhixia,huashiranliaodianchanglcoeweibaohanxiangguantanchengben,kezaishengnengyuandelcoeweibaohandianwangdiaopindengchengben,zheixiechengbenzuizhongjunxuyouxiaofeizhechengdan。

ciwai,henengyuanbuzhifadianzheiyixiangnengli。zhengfuzaiquedingshichangkuangjiashishifouchengrenbingguliyixiazheixieyoushi,shiyingxianghedianweilaiqianjingdeguanjianyinsuzhiyi。

henengdeyoushi:

• ditan、paifangliangshao。

bb滚球王• yuqitanengyuanxiangbi,tudiheziyuanzhanyongliangjiaoxiao。

• youxiaobimianledanyanghuawu、liuyanghuawu、zhongjinshuhekeliwudengwuran。

• tigongchixudianli,bingkegenjuyongdianxuqiudiaofengyunxing。

• tongguojianshaoduijiduantianqixianxianghewaibuweixiedecuiruoxing,tigaonengyuandanxing。

bb滚球王• tigongyouzhuyuwendingdianwanghediaojiepinlvdezhuandongguanliang。

• nenggouchucunranliao,tigaolenengyuangongyinganquanxing。

bb滚球王• zhuyaoweiyufeichengshidiqu,weidangditigonglegaojigongzuogangweihejingjihuodong。

bb滚球王• keweiyanjiu、yixue、gongyehenongyetigongtongweisuhezhichi。

• youzhuyugongre、gongyeheyunshubumendetuotan。

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图3 中国和美国不同发电技术的能源平准化成本(LCOE)(数据来源:bb滚球王-官网APP下载

bb滚球王zaizhengfujianqihoubianhuazhuanmenweiyuanhui(ipcc)fabu《quanqiushengwen1.5℃tebiebaogao》hou,shehuituantihejigoujinpoganyurijuzeng,henengzhujianbeirenweishiyingduiqihoubianhuadeguanjianjishu。guojinengyuanshu(iea)shuzhangfatihe·biluoer(fatih birol)biaoshi: “yanzhanghedianchangdeshoumingbujinshiyizhongjingjiyouxiaodejiejuefangan,hainengrangbbgunqiuwangdeqihoumubiaobaochihuoli。zheishidangjinzuijinpodezhengcetiaozhan。”

bb滚球王taotaikekaodeditannengyuanfadiansheshierbushihuashiranliaodianchangdezuofawufabangzhugeguoshixianjianpaimubiao。liru,jinguanzaixuduorenkanlaideguoshihuanjingbaohudechangdaozhe,danjutongji,congjueduizhilaikan,deguodeeryanghuatanpaifangliangweiyusuoyououzhouguojiazhishou。jianyuqihediantaotaizhengce,deguoweilaisihujiangzhuyaoyilaiyuhuashiranliao。zuijinfabudemeitantaotaishijianbiaozhengshilezheiyiqingkuang。genjushijianbiao,deguojiangyu2038niantaotaimeitan,bingzaizhihoubaochiduitianranqideyilai。

congyunyingshangdejiaodulaikan,hedianchangltoyejuyouzhongyaoyiyi。yunyingshangyongyoujishu、jingyan、biyaorenliziyuanyijijichusheshi,ltoquzhengguochengjiangbijianzaoxinhedianchanggengdijia、gengrongyi,erqiehaiyanzhanglejianzaofeiwuguanlisheshihechongshituiyizijindeshijian。dangdishequyejiangshouyiyuci。guantingyizuohedianchangjiangzaochenghendachengdudeshehuidongdang,meiguofomengtezhoudefoyangjihedianchang(vermont yankee)2014niantuiyishi,dangdijingjisunshida6000duowanmeiyuan,shuishouzhishaosunshi1200wanmeiyuan,daliangrenyuanshiye。

meiguoheouzhoudexinhedianchangbbgunqiuwangxiangmuzuijinzaishijianheyusuanshangdouchuxianlejudachaozhi,jianjietishengleltodexiyinli。raner,youyuxianyouhedianchangzhongjiangguanting,bunengjiangltoshizuoshixinjianhedianchangdetidaifangan。ltoconggenbenshangshuozhishiyizhongtouzijiaodidequanyizhiji,bbgunqiuwangxinhedianchangduiyuhegongyedezhangqifazhanheshixianqihoumubiaodoubukehuoque。ltoyingweixinjianxiangmuqidaoqiaoliangdezuoyong,bingbangzhuzaijileixiangmujingyandetongshibaochihexinxingyejingzhengli,jinyibujiangdiweilaixinjianxiangmuchengben。

2 确保LTO顺利实施的关键要素

bb滚球王ltodeshunlishishixuquebaoltozaijuyouchengbenxiaoyidetongshi,shihedianchangbaochigaoxingnengshuipingyunxing,shejixingye(baokuoyunyingshanghegongyinglian)、jianguanjigouhezhengcezhidingzhe。

2.1 运营商

bb滚球王duiyuhedianyunyingshangeryan,yingjinzaozaixiangmudeshejichuqiyanjiultofangan。ltodezhunbeigongzuoshoujianguanwanshanqingkuang、zhuangjiguimodengyinsuyijixiangguanjingyanshuipingdengyingxiang,ruobujizaojinxingzhunbeigongzuo,kenenghuizengjiaxiangmuchengbenhefengxian。

jianlihedianchangshoumingguanlitixi(plim)tongyangzhongyao。plimdemudeshiquedingdianchangzhenggeshengmingzhouqineisuoyouxuqiuheyingxiangyinsu,baochigaoanquanxingbingyouhuadianchangxingneng。plimjiangzonghekaolvlaohuajianceyujingjiguihua,congerjiejueshebeilaohua、weixiupaixu、dingqianquanshencha、jiaoyupeixundengyixilieyanshouwenti。

zuoweiplimdeyibufen,yunyingshangyingcaiyongtingyunhejianxiuyouhuajishu,jinkenengcaiyonggaijindezhuangtaijianxiufangfa(comdition-based maintenance),xuanzezuiyoudezhangqizichanguanlijihua。ltodechenggongshishihaiqujueyushifouyoushidangdeshejibiangenghezhishiguanlifangan,zheiduiyuweihubiaozhunhuahedianjizuyouweizhongyao。ruguogaizaoshengjiquefawanzhengjilu,jiangshideshengjihegenghuanxitongzujiandeguochenggengjutiaozhanxing。

ltoshengjihequzhenghuodongkaishiqian,yunyingshanghaiyingduiweilaijishinianzhongkenengchuxiandejihuihefengxianjinxingfenxiyuce。zheiyiweizheyaojiangxinxingjishukaolvzainei,lirukezaishengnengyuan、zhinengdianbiaohediandongqichedeng。tongshihaiyingkaolvshifouxuyinrufuhegenzonghuoredianlianchan(ruqingqishengchan、quyugongredeng)dengyunxingmoshi,quebaojingjikexingxing。

zailtoquzhengzhiqian,haixujiejuebufenjingjihefalvcengmiandewenti,liru:

● suoyouquan: bufenzaiyunhedianchangdesuoyouquanjiegoufuza,duogesuoyouzhekenengwufajiultodachengtongyiyijian。ruodianchangxiangyaozaiyuanshouqijichushangjixuyunying,kenengxuyaogaibiansuoyouquanjiegou。

● tudizulin: kenengxuzhongxinxieshangtudishiyongqingkuang。

● shichangqingkuang: baokuonengfouzaixinshouqineihuodeltotouzidehuibao,liruzhangqidegoudianxieyideng。

● tuiyihefeiwuguanlizijin: yinyunyingqiyanzhangjiweilaifeiwuliangbianhuadeyingxiang,yongyutuiyihefeiwuguanlidezijinshueyeyingdiaozheng。

zailtoquanguochengzhong,yexuzhuyirenliziyuanbaozhang。hedianchang60niandeyunxingshouqiyichaoguorenjungongzuonianxian,zheijiuyiweizhezaidianchangyunyinghouqi,xuyaozhurushulunxinxianxueyeyijietijingyanfengfudelaoyuangong。yuangongdeqiwangzaibuduanbianhua,baokuogengjiapianxiangyulinghuodegongzuotiaojian、shuzihuagongzuomoshi、yiji“zixiaershang”deguanlitixi。yinci,yunyingshangyingjishicaiqucuoshidiaozhengqiyewenhuahejiuyefuli,quebaonenggoujixuxiyinhegedelaodongli。

2.2 供应链

bb滚球王weichijiankangdegongyinglianshiltomianlindegengjishoutiaozhan。hediansheshishoumingzhang,bujiangenghuanpinlvdi,dingdanshuliangxiangduijiaoshao,shidegongyingshangbudebuquanhengshifouyoubiyaobaochiangguidehedianrenzheng,zheijiangdaozhihegegongyingshangjiaoshao,chengbengenggao。yinci,yunyingshanghegongyingshangxugongtongnuli,baozhangxiaohaoxingbujianzaizhenggeyunyingshouqineijunnengyouxiaogongying。

bb滚球王weibuduantishenganquanxingyujingjixing,henenglingyujuyouqiangliedechuangxindongli。danduiyultoeryan,chuangxinwangwangyiweizhetaotai,jishugexinkenengshidehedianchangwufaconggongyinglianzhonghuodelaojiushebei。erqie,hegongyebiaozhuntongchangjinzhizhijieshiyongxingyewaidexianchengchanpin(ots),tongshiyaoqiujianggezhongrongyuxitongzuoweizongshenfangyudeyibufenjinxingweihu,zheiyiweizhebixujiangjiuxitongzuoweixinxitongdebeifenhuotidaipin,yigejingdiandelizijiushimuqianhaiyouhenduohedianchangrengzaishiyongshouyaodianhua。ciwai,congltodejiaodulaikan,chuangxinhaibaohanzhexiediaoguojiguifanhebiaozhun,bingshishi“shangyejirenzhengliucheng”,shigengduoputongshangyejichanpinyouzigezaihedianbumenzhongshiyong。

xinjishuyekefahuizhongyaozuoyong。shixianltodeguanjianjishubaokuo:

● shuzihua/shuziluanshengjishuyouzhuyujinxingshejibiangenghezhishiguanlihuodong。

bb滚球王● zengcaizhizaojishuquebaoteshuzujianzaigongyingshangtingzhigongyinghoudekeyongxing。

● zidonghuahechuanganqijishujiangcujinxitongjiankangjianceheweihu,yanzhangguanjianbujiandeshiyongshouming。

● rengongzhinengjishuyouzhuyugaijinxiangmujinduguihua,congerjiangditingduihegaizaoqijiandechengben、shijianhefengxian。

● jiqirenjishuzainanyikaojinhegaofushedehuanjingzhongyingyongyuelaiyueguang,bingkeyuanchengzhixingweixiurenwu。

● xinxingranliaoshejiketigaoanquanxing,jiangdishigufengxianheyingxiang,tongshicujinyunyinglinghuoxinghegonglvdetisheng。

2.3 政府、监管机构和利益相关方

zhengfuyingjixujijizhichiheneng,quebaozhengcelianxuxing。duiyuzhengfulaishuo,jinyunxultoshibugoude,haixuyaojijijinxingtouzi,ji:

● jiadajichujiaoyutouru,quebaoyongyoushuliandegongrenduiwu。

● zhidingchanyezhanlve,weichigongyinglianjiankang。

● gaigeshichangjiegou,zhongshihenengdefeidianliyingyong。

bb滚球王● zaibufenguojia,ltobixuyougongzhongcanyu,yincidangdizhengfuyingquebaozheiyiguochengdetoumingdu,bingxiangliyixiangguanfangtigongjiyushishidexinxi,chuanquanhehuanjingfengxianwai,haiyingbaohanshehui、jingjixiaoyideneirong。

youyuqiyehejinrongjigouxujiangzhengcefengxiankaolvzainei,yincirenhexingshideqihezhengcedouhuiraoluanhedianchangltodejincheng,bingdaozhichengbenzengjia,shideguojiaqihoumubiaogengjiananyishixian。

bb滚球王zaizhenggehedianchangyunyingqijian,jianguanjigoudezuzhijiagouherenyuandebianhuadoujiangyingxiangltodeshishi,yinci,jianguanjigouyexuyaozhidingyigezhangqifangan。tongshi,jianguanjigouyingjubeizugoudefalvquanwei、jishuheguanlinengliyijirenlihecaizhengziyuan,quebaoxianyoudejianguankuangjiayingyuxuyaomingquejiedingdeltodeyaoqiuxiangyizhi。ciwai,jianguanjigouhaiyingjiaqiangguojihezuo,gongxiangleisidianchangdeyunyinglishibingcongqitaxiangmuzhongxiqujingyan,cujinltodeshunlishishi。

bb滚球王chuyunyingshang、zhengfuhejianguanjigouzhijiandeguanxiwai,qitaliyixiangguanfang(rudangdishequ)derentonghecanyuyeshiltodezhongyaozuchengbufen。mouxieguoqudecanyuhegoutongfangfaxianzaikenengyijingshixiao,yincixuzhongxinpingguxianyouliyixiangguanfangdecanyuhegoutonggongzuo,quedingqizailtodemubiaohetedingtiaozhanfangmiandeyouxiaoxing。

3 小结

hedianchangltoyidedaochenggongshifan,xianyichengweibiaozhunhuadegongzuomoshi。dangjinquanqiuzaiyundejuedaduoshuhedianjizuzaijishushangnenggouyunxing60nianshenzhigengzhangshijian,80nianzhengchengweixindejizhun。ltoyiweizhexianyouhedianchangkeyijixudaliangshengchankekao、ditandianli,dafuzengjialezheixiefadianzichandejiazhi。

zuijinyouduotaihedianjizuyinzhengzhierfeijishuyinsutiqianguanting,daduoguiyinyujingjiyuanyindeguantingyeshoudaozhengzhiyingxiang。liru,zai2011nian3yuefudaoshiguhou,ribendianligongsiwufamanzujianguanjigoutichudeangguizhongqitiaojian。qitayinjingjiguantingdedianchangyebingfeiquefajingzhengli,ershishoudaoshichangshilingdeyingxiang。ruguogeguorenzhenyanpanshijieditanfazhanxingshibingbaoliuzheixiehedianchangdailaidezhongduoyichu,neimechuyuzhengzhihejingjiyinsuguantinghedianjizudeqingkuangjiangdadajianshao。

bb滚球王suiranltoshiyigejinpodequanqiuyouxianshixiang,dantabuyingzuzhixianyoudehedianguojiabbgunqiuwangxinhedianjizu。hedianchangzuizhongdoujiangtuiyi,ltokeyitongguobaoliuqiguanjianjishunengli,weiweilaixinjianhedianchangdiandingjichu。ltohexinjianhedianfanganyingtongshikaizhan,gongtongshixianjianpaimubiao。

yejie、zhengfuhejianguanjigoupoqiexuyaocaiquxingdong,zuidaxianduditigaoxianyouhedianchangdechanneng。yunyingshangying:

● zaichuqijieduanjiuyinrudianchangshoumingguanliheshejibiangengguanlijihua。

bb滚球王● zaiquzhengjixiandaihuagaizaozhiqian,duizhengzhi、jingji、shehui、jishu、falvhehuanjingfangmiankenengcunzaideweixiehejihuijinxingpinggu。

bb滚球王● jiaqiangqiyewenhuabbgunqiuwang,jiadadianchangxiandaihuagaizaofangmiantouru,quebaojubeibiyaodeneiwaiburenliziyuan。

ciwai,zaihedianchangyuelaiyuezhangdeyunxingguochengzhong,yunyingshanghegongyingshanghaiyingquebaoqibujiankezhengchangshiyong。ltoyiyishangdechuangxinyingbaokuoxiediaoguojiguifanhebiaozhun,bingshishi“shangyejirenzhengliucheng”。shuzihua、zengcaizhizao、jiqirenjishu、rengongzhineng、zidonghuahexianjinheranliaodengxinjishuyejiangfahuiguanjianzuoyong。

bb滚球王geguozhengfubujinyingyunxuhedianchangdelto,haixujijizhichiheneng,bingquebaoxiangguanzhengcedelianxuxing。zuoweigongyezhanlvedeyibufen,zhengfuhaiyingweibiyaodejichujiagoubbgunqiuwangtigongjiaoyupeixunziyuan,bingchengrenhediandeyoushi,zhongxinguihuanengyuanshichang,yirenshidaohenengdailaidezhuduohaochu。zaicibangzhuxia,xianyouhedianchangjiangzaijienengjianpaijifadianfangmianfahuichubiyuxianggengdadejiazhi。






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